CNBC Daily Open: Iran has more avenues of retaliating against the U.S. — including oil supply
Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Tehran, Iran on January 9, 2026.
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Iran now appears to be next on President Donald Trump's list, after Venezuela and Greenland.
The backdrop is a wave of protests in Iran, now in their third week. What began as demonstrations over a sharp jump in inflation has evolved into nationwide, anti-government unrest. More than 500 people have been killed as Iran's government moved aggressively to suppress dissent, according to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.
Trump weighed in Friday with a Truth Social post declaring that "the United States of America will come to their rescue," referring to the protestors.
Those weren't empty words. White House officials have since outlined potential options for him, with briefings scheduled this week on possible responses that could include military, cyber and economic measures, according to MS Now and other media outlets. No decisions have been announced.
Any escalation would carry major consequences. Iran is not only a major oil producer, but also wields influence over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global crude. Disruption there would almost certainly ripple through energy markets.
"The complete closure of the Strait that can result in a $10 to $20 per barrel spike," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
Analysts caution that Iran presents far greater risks than previous U.S. targets. "Iran is far more capable of retaliating against the U.S., especially by attacking regional energy infrastructure," said Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research.
Iranian officials have echoed that warning. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned of potential retaliation if the U.S. strikes the country. "In the case of an attack on Iran, the occupied territories (Israel) as well as all U.S. bases and ships will be our legitimate target," Qalibaf said, according to a Reuters report.
What you need to know today
The Strait of Hormuz back in focus. Industry experts cautioned that a U.S.-Iran conflict could prompt Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which nearly a third of the world's seaborne crude flows. Here's what a U.S. intervention in Iran could look like.
Fed Chair Powell says he's under investigation. Federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation of Powell, focused on the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters, he said on Sunday evening, adding that it's the result of the Fed's refusal to cut rates as quickly as Trump has demanded.
Cuba will not receive Venezuelan oil, Trump says. The Caribbean island, however, pushed back against Trump's threat to make a deal with the U.S. Separately, Trump on Friday signed an executive order aimed at blocking the seizure of Venezuelan oil revenue held in U.S. Treasury accounts.
Closing highs for the S&P 500 and Dow. Major U.S. indexes climbed on Friday and posted a winning week. On Monday, Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher, while oil prices ticked up and spot gold prices hit an all-time high.
[PRO] Where Chinese consumers will spend. One sector of China's economy is starting to show spending trends, and stock analysts are picking out the names they expect to be winners.
And finally…
China’s AI and robotics push isn’t enough to kickstart its economy, leaving growth more exposed to trade risks
From 2023 to 2025, new industries such as artificial intelligence, robotics and electric cars added just 0.8 percentage points to economic output, while real estate and other traditional sectors saw a combined 6 percentage point decline, U.S.-based research firm Rhodium Group said in a report Monday.
While Beijing has prioritized high-tech development, it has taken fewer steps to address a yearslong slump in real estate. The sector once accounted for more than a quarter of the economy. New home sales by floor area last year fell to levels not seen since 2009, according to a report last week by the China Real Estate Information Corp.
— Evelyn Cheng
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